Mobarok Hossain
April 25, 2024
Spot Gold (XAU/USD) is continuing its broader bearish expansion following the completion of Wave (b) at **4,697.975**. Price action is currently structured within a **Descending Parallel Channel** on the daily/H4 framework. A minor corrective pullback is currently underway toward the **0.618 Fibonacci level (4,111.221)**, presenting a key lower-high retest zone before the primary Wave (c) projection unfolds.
**Key Technical & Fibonacci Levels**
* **Immediate Retest Resistance:** **4,111.221** — Confluence of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the upper boundary of the descending channel.
* **Macro Wave (b) High (0.0 Fib):** **4,697.975** — Top-side invalidation level for the macro bearish outlook.
* **Structural Break Base (BOS Support):** **~3,950.00** — Key horizontal level preceding channel expansion.
* **Primary Wave (c) Extension Target (1.0 Fib):** **3,748.535** — Major institutional demand target and 100% Fibonacci extension.
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### **Technical Outlook & Execution Strategy**
1. **Channel & Fibonacci Retest:** Price is staging a short-term rally into **4,111.221**. Holding below this level maintains the lower-high, lower-low sequence inherent to the descending channel.
2. **Continuation Confirmation:** Rejection from **4,111.221** followed by a breach below the horizontal support base around **3,950.00** confirms the acceleration of Elliott Wave (c).
3. **Macro Target Objective:** Upon confirmation, order flow strongly favors expansion toward the **1.0 Fibonacci extension at 3,748.535**, where significant long-term demand rests.
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*Disclaimer: This analysis is provided strictly for educational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice.*
